You think that Der Spiegel article to be on the money? The only 'shocking' truly recognizable part is the proclamation of a Caliphate. But lets look a bit closer.
The First Phase Known as "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims. "The first phase was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaida as very successful," writes Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target." The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard "everywhere."
This is history during the time of writing of the article, so it's easy to report ones 'fase one complete'.
The Second Phase "Opening Eyes" is, according to Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.
So get bigger in the news. The goal of any terrorist organisation. Keep up with terrorist attacks and this point is a given. Not too hard a goal unless your whole organisation manages to get obliterated.
The Third Phase This is described as "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.
No focus on Syria within that time frame. No mention of an Arabian spring either, though in the end that did give them the opportunity they were looking for, they attempted to do so in many countries but only got lucky in Syria. Where there chances were stronger to start with. A repressed majority population aligned with their particular religious faith.
Btw, no true IS/Al Qaida attacks in Turkey, Israel or Jordan.
The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida." At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.
The rulers of the Arabic peninsula are still in power. Except for Jemen, and IS or AQ can take no credit there. Attacks against oil suppliers? Not really. A disruption for a little while in Iraq for sure but the oil price of today wouldn't be going down if this part had actually succeeded. And cyber attacks? China and maybe Russia up to now and the US economy has hardly had a blow from that. Maybe managing to plant IS banners on websites with weak security count as true cyber terrorism for IS or AQ.
The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
Yes, the caliphate has been declared, the one thing they were 100% in control of, so not too much of a shock, though I have to admit they managed to gain maximum benefit from the situation in Syria and Iraq.
Of course, Western Influence in the Islamic world hasn't really been reduced and Israel hasn't been weakened at all. Or 'New World Schmorder' as the Israeli would say.
The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.
There would have been no way in which the declaration of a Caliphate would not have resulted in confrontation. A medium like Char could have predicted this as the result of step 5's main goal.
The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half billion Muslims," the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.
And here things really go off the rails. 1,5 billion muslims? Sure, if they'd all be on the same page. Unfortunately (or rather; more realistic) IS is so bat shit crazy hardliner that it considers all muslims that do not follow their exact creed as enemies. See how the rest of the Islamic world has risen to support them? No chance of that, they mainly attract thrill seekers who want to go 'play war'. A dangerous development in so far as you allow individuals like these (the ones that like it and don't come running back real fast) back into your countries.
In fact, until Sunni and Shiite muslims can stop trying to oppress and kill each other I'm not seeing all muslims oppose the rest of the world.
