EDIT: just realized I posted this in the wrong forum, Mods please move this post to the Counts forum. Thanks
It's an Empire topic - you mean Electors Forum 
Hi,
I am currently 'fine' tuning my 2000pts list for the Norwegian championship next year and now I'm facing the dreaded Point Shaving in order to get all the shizmos and gizbangs I need. After much deliberation I have considered to drop one Cannon and add an Engineer in order to free up 60pts.
To justify this cut in firepower for myself I have done a Mathammer comparison that show the expected average effectiveness of the two choices.
I have posted the result here just in case there are 1 or 2 mathammer enthusiasts that actually enjoys reading this stuff (like me

):
2 Canons average successful hits for 1 game (6 turns):Max shots: 12
Average Misfires: 2
Average Next shot cancelled results: 1
Average missed shots (approx.): 1.5
Total average hits for 2 Canons: 7,51 Canon + Engineers average successful hits for 1 game (6 turns):Max shots: 6
Average Misfires with reroll: 0,17
Average Next shot cancelled results: 0,083
Average missed shots (approx.) with reroll: 0,16
Total average hits for 1 Canon: 5,59So, the 2 Canons get 1,34 times more hits than 1 Canon + Engineer. The 2 Canons cost 1,33 points more so it seems like you get what you pay for on both choices. One big benefit for the double canons is the potential maximum shots, 12 versus only 6 with 1 Canon. However this is unlikely to get off. In effect if you go for double canons you pay 60pts for 1,91 more hits which can get you some good points of the opponent.
The above calculations does not take into account the chance for the warmachines to blow up, this is showed below:
1xBlow up chance for 1 game:2 Canons: 2 Average misfires * 1 in 6 Blow up chance = 16,66%
1 Canon with Engineer: 0,16 Average misfires * 1 in 6 Blow up chance = 2,77%
These numbers speak for themselves, a major benefit for the single Canon.
Another benefit for the singel Canon with Engineer is of course the extra 60pts which can be used to flesh out the Halberdier unit, getting a naked WP or buying shoes for your Free companeers. Also, you bleed 60pts less to armies with a lot of war machine hunters and waste 60pts less against armies with no good canon targets.
Thats it, I think I will go for the single Canon choice so I can free up some points. Note that I am no math expert so there might be some errors here, also apologize if this has been posted before.
Happy Points shaving
