Topic: 2 Canons VS 1 Canon + Engineer Warning Mathammer inside!

[Underdawg]

EDIT: just realized I posted this in the wrong forum, Mods please move this post to the Counts forum. Thanks
It's an Empire topic - you mean Electors Forum 

Hi,
I am currently 'fine' tuning my 2000pts list for the Norwegian championship next year and now I'm facing the dreaded Point Shaving in order to get all the shizmos and gizbangs I need. After much deliberation I have considered to drop one Cannon and add an Engineer in order to free up 60pts.
To justify this cut in firepower for myself I have done a Mathammer comparison that show the expected average effectiveness of the two choices.
I have posted the result here just in case there are 1 or 2 mathammer enthusiasts that actually enjoys reading this stuff (like me ):

2 Canons average successful hits for 1 game (6 turns):
Max shots: 12
Average Misfires: 2
Average Next shot cancelled results: 1
Average missed shots (approx.): 1.5
Total average hits for 2 Canons: 7,5

1 Canon + Engineers average successful hits for 1 game (6 turns):
Max shots: 6
Average Misfires with reroll: 0,17
Average Next shot cancelled results: 0,083
Average missed shots (approx.) with reroll: 0,16
Total average hits for 1 Canon: 5,59

So, the 2 Canons get 1,34 times more hits than 1 Canon + Engineer. The 2 Canons cost 1,33 points more so it seems like you get what you pay for on both choices. One big benefit for the double canons is the potential maximum shots, 12 versus only 6 with 1 Canon. However this is unlikely to get off. In effect if you go for double canons you pay 60pts for 1,91 more hits which can get you some good points of the opponent.

The above calculations does not take into account the chance for the warmachines to blow up, this is showed below:
1xBlow up chance for 1 game:
2 Canons: 2 Average misfires * 1 in 6 Blow up chance = 16,66%
1 Canon with Engineer: 0,16 Average misfires * 1 in 6 Blow up chance = 2,77%
These numbers speak for themselves, a major benefit for the single Canon.

Another benefit for the singel Canon with Engineer is of course the extra 60pts which can be used to flesh out the Halberdier unit, getting a naked WP or buying shoes for your Free companeers. Also, you bleed 60pts less to armies with a lot of war machine hunters and waste 60pts less against armies with no good canon targets.

Thats it, I think I will go for the single Canon choice so I can free up some points. Note that I am no math expert so there might be some errors here, also apologize if this has been posted before.
Happy Points shaving 

[Turnip86]

One thing that 2 cannons brings to the table is the ability to shoot two completely different targets, that's the only thing I'd really mention as an advantage.

In the majority of cases you probably only need one cannon and your analysis seems to back up what you want from your army so go for it

Final note, you only save 55 points as opposed to 60, Engineers are 65pts

[Syn Ace]

Uh, last game (2500) my damned cannon misfired turn 1 and then two of the next 3 shots I rolled 2/2. I finally dropped a cannonball on the Vampire Lord's head right after he'd left a unit -- and rolled a 1. Stupid cannon killed 5 zombies for a total of 15 points.

Luckily the STank's cannon killed a Mortis Engine.

Normally I do run 2 cannons, but I was trying a different build this time.

[The Peacemaker]

Well its always nice to try something new.
But with mathhammer you really need a substantial increase in a given percentage if its a 1 shot of(1dice). If its a minor increase then you need multiples of(many dice).

Then you have to think of their uses in situations. For cannons, 2 is better than 1 because you can shoot a different target or you shoot the same target and instead of getting to re-roll one dice, you get to re-roll them all!

[Grazhnakk]

I'd have a hard time giving up 2 cannons, for one *very* important reason:

it gives the other guys two threats to kill. Stick one on either side of the deployment, and if they want a cannon dead, they need to split the effort to kill it.

[Dammanz]

I'd have a hard time giving up 2 cannons, for one *very* important reason:

it gives the other guys two threats to kill. Stick one on either side of the deployment, and if they want a cannon dead, they need to split the effort to kill it.

This is what i was going to say. Two cannons do so much more psychologically then just one. It forces the opponent to think about placement, charges, what his skirmishers/artillery hunters do and just the whole flow of the game. What are you going to get with those points that can do that much by just placing it on the table?