Topic: Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers

[Midaski]

Well Well Well - Massacre Man may have slipped up in TVI's thread.

My 'subtle suggestions' have provoked him into revealing his army composition, and guess what - all those claims of using "A Campaign List" for a 25% modifier are illegal as he's admitted using a Griffon and Ogres.

We await the developments with interest.


Round 4 finishes tomorrow - Canadian Time. So later in the day European time.
We need to evaluate quickly where we are going to concentrate.

If there is some 'reaction' to the above, the Stirlanders might get penalised, which might help the Watchman.

I would think we ought to give protecting Kaltenbach priority.
Even if Stirland manage to contest TUW the penalty possibility could help us next round.

[Rorrak]

Tommorow is the cut off Day for this round. (Recently posted by the general)

I'll hang on to my report till tommorow morning but then Rugby vs Australia will take over my thoughts for awhile.

We can thus expect

6 More massacres from the Stirland Regulars or 10800 points at TUW.

Yikes.

[Rorrak]

My 'subtle suggestions' have provoked him into revealing his army composition, and guess what - all those claims of using "A Campaign List" for a 25% modifier are illegal as he's admitted using a Griffon and Ogres.

Errr, good spotting. I read the post but didn't pick that up.

[Midaski]

Rorrak - you posted too quick - I went back and edited my previous post.

Can you update the scores thread??

[Midaski]

According to my timings Round 4 started late evening on Tuesday here in the UK, and is likely to finish late evening on Saturday, ..

which makes it a '4 day' round

[Rorrak]

Scores thread is up to and including Spites post.

[Midaski]

Great - so at present:

Kaltenbach:
We are up 2600pts, BUT cisse and helblaster could post a result each, possibly 3600, and then maybe they have other odd posts.

So we may need 1000 pts or more at Kaltenbach?

The Uneasy Watchman:

We are down 750 pts, AND Demonslayer and wojammer both have 2 games each possible which could be 7200pts, before any others might chip in.

So we could need loads here - have we got it?
I have a game this evening. What else do we have?

[Rorrak]

I would think we ought to give protecting Kaltenbach priority.
Even if Stirland manage to contest TUW the penalty possibility could help us next round.

At this point I would tend to agree.

We are missing too many reports from the Stirlanders that we have little hope of holding back the onslaught.

Fr1day has suggested a spate of attacks comming for Kaltenbach but I honestly think that its a bluff. However in light of not being able to hold the uneasy and the potential for Fr1day not to be bluffing.....

Here is a prediction, its just a gut feel and I would still recomend holding Kaltenbach but ....

Stirland will last minute attack at UDO's, with their outstanding points they have enough to take it. With us being split and having posted many battles already they will gamble that we dont have enough to keep TUW.

They will get burned by T-Land at UDO's because I have a feeling that Fr1day's comment is designed to make Stirland think that Udo's is up for the taking.

[Rorrak]

I have either a 1200 report for Kaltenbach or a 1050 report for TUW.
 
I know Vann Harl is trying for a game this evening. He wants to test his list for our Tourney this weekend, however chances are probably not good for this to happen because he also doesn't want to play against one of the tourney entrants (wich makes sense)

[Midaski]

Interesting decision isn't it -
IT's times like these when you find out if you are lucky or intuitive, or just an idiot .......

Talabecland have a 5500 points lead over Stirland at Udo's - now Stirland have been a bit quiet with reports - have they taken the bait and realised they ought to attack Udo's.
Massacre Man is eating Humble Pie at the moment, and offering not to post for 14 days - what will the Campaign Team's reaction be?
If he is penalised for results this round that changes a lot of things.

I think we should plump for being certain of keeping Kaltenbach.

If Talabecland have to counter a Stirland threat at Udo's we may not see all of the outstanding Talabec potential against us.

The Watchman may then go to contested - but we can then try to win it back next round.

Tactically we do not want TWO contested locations at the same time. It will divide our efforts - and we'd probably lose both
 

[Rorrak]

I think we should plump for being certain of keeping Kaltenbach.

 
This is as close to a sure thing as we can get, everything else is risky.
 
 
The Massacre man incident actually works against us at Kaltenbach.
 
T-Land will feel they can ignore any potential threat from him, (wich they probably can), thus Stirland won't have enough to focus a late attack on UDO's.
 
As a result we should focus at Kaltenbach IMO.
 
Without a modifier at TUW it will be easy to just keep contested.

[Vann Harl]

To the walls men of kaltenbach! and Cry NEVER!!!

[Midaski]

Okay Van Harl, but have you got any battles tonight or tomorrow?

We need to have an idea of what battles we might have.

The big question is what will Stirland do now - they probably were working on a guaranteed 2 massacres with bonuses for Demonslayer, some 3600 or more points.
That's a big hole in their calculations. So will they go all out at Udo's, or focus on the Watchman, or try to sneak both?

In 20-24 hours time, from this post now, I think we'll probably have a clearer idea of their plans.

My guess is they'll go for Udo's, and hopefully early enough for Talabecland to realise and try to fight them off. That will use up some of Talabeclands attack points for Kaltenbach.

With Demonslayer out of the equation, it might just be interesting to watch the Watchman [groan.....I cannot believe no-one's done that one already?] as we're only 750 points down.

We may need a couple of good results held for last minute decisions?

I think the way this round was set up, we were supposed to lose ground - we were the target on two fronts and aiming to be contested at the Watchman, and contested at Kaltenbach.
If we get through this round with one of those contested we've done well, if we can survive both, it will be fantastic.

This could be a very decisive round end ...................
 

If someone has enough it might well be worth waiting till later tomorrow, - as if Stirland do decide to go all out for Udo's Fall.

[rha celt]

After looking at where we are at and finding out the round ends tomorrow I made some phone calls. I have three friends coming over to game tonight we will round robin the games so I will get in three games tonight.  I can't promise anything but since I have to buy all the beer and pizza's tonight  I am hoping for at least a couple of wins. This is one of those last minute unplanned things that took some serais groveling to the significant other but I hope it helps.

[Nightshadow]

Im having one or two games tonight, and prolly the same tomorrow. I hope and expect to have at least two victories to post before the late deadline tomorrow.

[Midaski]

That's good news rha

By my time calculations I reckon we probably have about 24 -26 hours maximum before Round 4 closes, so around this time tomorrow we should be posting our reports where needed.

My biggest problem is I will not be around after this time tomorrow, so I may well miss the last couple of hours - it may go to the wire.

With Calvin doing the 'close down' from Canada, we may need someone hovering to counteract any last minute enemy surges.
 

[Rorrak]

A phoenix rises from the ashes after only 18 lessons.

[Midaski]

Rorrak: No comprendo your last post - phoenix ?

I assume you mean Hellions sudden success - I think he is Helblaster's brother, and obviously he has stopped playing his brother.

The Watchman is looking a lost cause now - the focus should be on making sure we hang on to Kaltenbach.

I have 1400 to post from tonight's game.

I'll hold it till tomorrow develops.

Spite and Erken possibly have a couple of results to add - we do need some more from somewhere though.?

I'd love to have about 9-10000 to post to the Watchman late tomorrow afternoon, as long as we'd held onto Kaltenbach.
We've got a 1500pt lead at Kaltenbach at the moment - there may be one report from cisse, something else from Fr1day, and episteme doesn't seem to have chipped in this round yet.

So we made need around another 3000 there yet.
It's looking tight........
 

[jmanwarhammer]

I'm looking at a couple thousand points tommorrow. Where do you want them? Kaltenbach or the Uneasy?

[Rorrak]

We are down 12900 now at the Uneasy. Its a long haul to get it back.

I also feel we need to pump at least 4000 points into Kaltenbach

Lets see what we have .

1200 from Rorrak.
2000 from jmanwarhammer.
1400 from Midaski

Thats 4600 and should secure Kaltenbach for us.

Now what to do with Spite and Erkins possible battles.

Stirland are going to want to continue the beat down at TUW, after all, why contest it if you dont plan to take it. We are 12900 down there

Do we build a strong buffer at Kaltenbach now so that we can focus more at TUW ? Do we try to reduce the deficit at TUW ?

Its unlikely we will get any modifiers. Not sure what the outcome of keeping Kaltenbach with the mural will be ?

It would be my feeling to just report everything we have at Kaltenbach building a strong buffer there. If there is any reward to be had from the mural cool, if not then at least we have a head start on future assaults there.

[Rorrak]

Rorrak: No comprendo your last post - phoenix ?

Its just that Daniel has taken sutch a pounding from his brother (18 defeats in total) and then not only wins but wins well in 4 games.

I guess I'm just not used to such a varience in player strength.

Imagine what Helblaster would do to Daniel's new opponent. Massacre a Minute man.

I rate myself as a strong player, having played and done well in tournaments in both the USA and here in South Africa and I get a massacre once in every 4 games only. Sure I could pick one of the junior players in the club and trash him over and over but good grief man. I would feel like a total jerk.

[Rorrak]

Ok Spites games are in at Kaltenbach giving us a decent lead again.
 
Do we nail Kaltenbach down good and tight so that we can focus at the uneasy next round or do we try to hold the uneasy also.
 
12900 is a big lead they have there its not likely that we have enough left to keep it from going contested. Additional postings from us there may very well  attract games from Stirland that may be posted at UDO's  and cause them to benefit from the 25% bonus.
 
At the same time nailing Kaltenbach hard now to ensure it and then to have a strong buffer while also earning the 25% bonus gives us much freedom next round at  TUW. Next round we may not even have to deal with a Stirland Bonus. I'm headed out to watch South Africa vs Australia (Rugby) so have to post now. I may be back before the end of the round, but I may not be.
 
Lastly, Calvin hinted there is a tiny chance of an extra day. If thats true it may change things. Both Vann Harl and I have 3 games tomorrow at a mini tourney our club is holding. However this is a very small shot in the dark.

[Midaski]

Right it is now 12.10pm BST [11.10 GMT ? ] - I'm not very good at all this time stuff

We have a 6000pt lead at Kaltenbach, and Talabecland are really under pressure at Udo's.

I think Kaltenbach is safe - so well done everyone.

If we continue posting there it may well make it very strong for the next round but we could be so far behind at the Watchman we will have a very difficult job getting it back - tho maybe we'll get the bonus next round

If a real nailbiter develops at Udo's Fall - we may have seen the last attack from Stirland at TUW -

They seem to have a lead of about 12650 according to my mental maths, which would be nice to nail, but I doubt we have that much in the bank.

Jman has some, erken has a bit, and I have my 1400, but unless we can total 13000+ to really hammer them I think you should read my thoughts below.

However there may be an argument for closing down our attacks this round - if we did get a bonus - it is our turn - next round, then any points held back now would earn more.
Certainly worth considering for people who will not average a game a day in the next round - like me

Those of you who will do a game a day or very close to it should post this round to the Watchman at the moment.

It just might be worth listing points available if you have them and we'll decide in about 5 hours time on the final attacks.

Any thoughts or points around
 

[rha celt]

I have two solid victories and a draw, where do you want them? I also have a rather nasty hangover from gaming all night and consuming way to much nector of the gods.  I am going to post this and check back before I go to bed It will probably only be an hour or so I have to take a shower. I would love to wait until late to post but I will probaly be sleeping.

[rha celt]

It just took me 5 tries to get my wins entered. I may have boo-booed a couple of times but I think we are having system problems anyone else have a problem. Oh well of to bed GOOD LUCK!!!