Topic: Tactical Exposition Game 1: Civil War Community Thread

[TCWarroom]

Generating 5 steam points is always risky, especially on a tank with any amount of wounds. It is unnecessary most of he time and cost 250 points in this instance. From my experience, I would say never generate 5 steam. It is the only way to easily lose a stank and the benefit of 1 extra steam is almost never worth it.

[rothgar13]

The chance of that catastrophic misfire was 1/9 in that turn, and 1/18 at any time the Tank is at full Wounds. Those are acceptable odds, I just got unlucky. To be honest with you, this is the first time I lose a Steam Tank in any game to a misfire, so I'd do that over again - the STank is at its brutal finest when you have 5 SP early. I stop trying to generate 5 SP when my Tank is at 7 Wounds or less.

[TCWarroom]

That tank had a wound, meaning you misfire on a 10 and a misfire roll. 33% chance of something bad happening. It then dies on a 5 or 6. That's too risky for the payoff IMO. Do that over with 4 steam and you would still have a stank on the field and that one less point would have most likely not altered anything performance wise.

To each his own, but I feel the risk is never worth the reward.

[rothgar13]

It would have significantly altered my game plan, actually. 3 SP in movement would have gotten me within range of the action, while still leaving 2 SP over for a nice cannon shot. 2 SP on movement didn't quite get me where I need to go, otherwise I wouldn't have tried to generate 5 SP. And the 1/9 chance I mentioned is exactly what you were talking about.

[TCWarroom]

You sometimes roll just as far with 2 steam as 3. That's the downside of random movement. I hear your arguments but I feel especially in a situation where you were in control and up on points, you didn't need to do it. Sounds like I am more unlucky with my arty dice than you and even though my lucky number is 5, I usually go for 4. 

[rothgar13]

Well, if you use the dicelog as your guide, I wouldn't have gotten anywhere, no matter how many dice I rolled.

I took a reasonable gamble in order to try and improve my position to finish the fight as opposed to just sitting on my points, and I lost. It's not the first time, and it won't be the last.

[Noght]

I think much depends on whether Zif can buff his greatswords.

Smoosh? No. Win? Probably- but they won't be combat effective afterwards. I see 15-17 going down in the first round of combat. 8-10 in the second.

I dunno... with the DGs running away (less than 5% likelihood) the game is a bit more open. Still think it's over though.

Probably right.  Though I suspect that both the GS and Halberds survive.  A good shooting/magic phase makes it closer.

[sammay23]

I took a reasonable gamble in order to try and improve my position to finish the fight as opposed to just sitting on my points, and I lost. It's not the first time, and it won't be the last.

This. Exactly how I like to play the game. It's like poker. You play the odds. Know them. Take your gamble. Don't get upset when the odds don't go in your favor. An 8/9 chance of moving forward 3d6 and cannoning 24" is well worth the risk. Although, to be fair, there were also 1/9 odds that you'd lose a few wounds, and gain more SP - in this case an excellent outcome.

[Holy Hand Grenade]

Shooting updated on the threads.

Damn, that HBVG just doesn't want to go down.

I will do all the combat except the GS/Halb fight-  not sure if Zif wants to challenge yet.

[zifnab0]

This. Exactly how I like to play the game. It's like poker. You play the odds. Know them. Take your gamble. Don't get upset when the odds don't go in your favor. An 8/9 chance of moving forward 3d6 and cannoning 24" is well worth the risk. Although, to be fair, there were also 1/9 odds that you'd lose a few wounds, and gain more SP - in this case an excellent outcome.

If you guess 10" from the cannon, your odds of hitting it are 55%.  You then have a 1/6 chance of wounding and 2/3 chance of doing enough wounds to kill it.  The result is roughly 30% chance of killing the cannon in one shot.  For a 120 point cannon, the expected value of the shot is 36 points.

With 1/9 chance of exploding on a 250 point chariot, it costs you 27 points to generate 5 steam on a wounded tank, and that's just the risk of exploding.  You also have a 1/9 chance of losing D3 wounds, which costs you another 11 points.

Value: 36 points.  Cost: 38 points.

Over many turns, you're more likely to lose more points than you gain from generating 5 steam points and shooting enemy cannons.  You'll lose roughly one steam tank for every two cannons you blow up.  In my opinion, that's not an effective trade.  Your opinion may vary, obviously.

[sammay23]

I like the math, Zif. It's a nice way of thinking about the value.

I know you meant 5/6 odds of wounding, not 1/6.

I'm thinking through your reasoning, because it seems incomplete to me. Much, I think, depends on how important it is to remove those cannon. However, as a rough heuristic for calculating the cost of an action, I do like your reasoning. A lot.

I do think there is value in losing 1d3 wounds but gaining 1d3 Steam. I'm not sure I'd value it as a loss, with 7 wounds still on the tank.

Again, I really like this form of reasoning, but I think there's a little more nuance to it.

[Holy Hand Grenade]

I have always generated 4 Steam max.

After watching this TEG, I think the risks are worth it to pump out 5 Steam on an unwounded STank in the early rounds.  At least that is my risk/reward I am willing to take.

I played a game last night against an opponent I play all the time and he was surprised when I dished out 5 Steam in the first two turns.

I also like Zif's line of reasoning.  But I will say that straight up, simple math-hammer doesn't account for all the little variables and situational context for the risk/rewards.  If you were cranking out some complex math with weighted variables based on the situation than maybe....

Tactics is both science and art.  A General that seizes the right moment and takes the right risks reaps the best rewards.  Going back to my Tao of the Empire article-  recognizing the shih and forming node.

Great discussion.

[zakalwe]

I play cautious with Steam points too, 4 is the usual. Unless i think its a make or break time. This is partly due to the odds and eliminating risk but mainly due to sods law being taking affect.

I think it is going to be a closer game now, both sides have points they can gather at range, be it magic or artillery etc.

The combats could be close, especially given the dicelog's reputation ^^.

I would not like to call a winner as it stands even at 66 - 1 odds.

[TCWarroom]

Just don't like the first turn 5 steam exploding tank. It happened to me shortly after the book came out and I am more cautious now. Especially since that extra steam would not have mattered.

[Noght]

Just don't like the first turn 5 steam exploding tank. It happened to me shortly after the book came out and I am more cautious now. Especially since that extra steam would not have mattered.

This.  First time ever, 5 steam points, misfire, boom.....

[Krokz]

I work with 4 steam points 95% of the time. It's more then enough for a 3 point move and one steam point shot. You can shoot 12" away and when you add overshot its enough to hit what you want. Or you move for 2 points and shoot for two.
Loosing STank is just to much for Empire tactics. 250 points isn't really something I would cry about but loosing my central offensive/tarpit unit is. That extra steam point is not worth it.

[TCWarroom]

I just played a double stank game and misfired 3 times. Each time was 3 or 4 steam. Nothing bad happened. I'm sticking to my guns. I am not good at 5 steam. One of my tanks almost killed the 3++ ws chaos lord. At least it pinned him for 5 full turns and did not die. 11 rounds of combat. Long live the stank!

[Holy Hand Grenade]

The battle is over and TEG1 is in the books.  View either thread for the details.

Please post your thoughts on the battle.  I will post my thoughts later-  it is late and I need to go to bed!

 
HHG

[George]

Great work HHG, roth and zif. Congrats to zif.
I was following this from roth's perspective and thought he had the game won at around turn 3. I think the main play that lost him the game was sending the knights in to support the tank. This brought the greatswords into the match and let them deal with both the knights and halberds.
I fthe knights had been held back either zif had to commit the greatswords to a combat against the halberds with knights support or keep them back from the battle....the latter being an option that wouldn't have scored him enough points for the win.
That said with how roth played it kept it interesting throughout the final turns where each dice roll mattered rahter than a boring points denial finish.

I enjoyed watching this play out so a big thanks guys!

[Krokz]

Heh, I am used to units with less then 25% of starting models giving 50% of points to the enemy That way Roth would have won. Now I see why this rule is here (ETC) - to prevent rank&files winning like this.

Gratz to both players. I was looking at Roths perspective since I wanted to see how someone else plays army composition like that and I have to say it was played completely different. Sometimes I was just (negatively ) surprised by some of his actions.

[zakalwe]

A close game indeed. The dicelog gods were fickle again.

Thanks for both sides and HHG for putting on the show.

AS rothgar has already mentioned the light magic was underwhelming, though it did affect the game, it never game that decisive edge.
I take a level 4 and a level 2 in 2000 games because i prefer magical flexibility, Shadow lvl 2 scroll caddy mainly. And i think that a timely little hex would have been beneficial to both sides over a harder to achieve buff.

The artillery was under performing for both sides really. With 4 cannons i would have thought Rothgar would secure ranged dominance earlier, but the ground was obviously boggy in patches. If Rothgar had been boring and sat back with everything how would it plan out? A gunline /counter attacking army is quite reasonable with the list.

I think zif was right to close asap, he could surely not win the artillery duel. The halbs got bogged down by the Stank, but also got out the gun sights.

I think deploying a volley gun or cannon unit near the lake could have worked, the lake protecting it from counter battery fire somewhat. Perhaps a spear unit to help redirect too. 

Having said that, the need for rothgars western forces to move to get into the action was a help to Zif.

Luck played a massive part of the game. Both sides had their share of good and bad rolls. This game highlights that warhammer is a dice dependent game and that all you can do is stack it in your favour as much as possible and hope.

[Noght]

Well done HHG, Roth, and Zif!  Thanks for the hard work.

[TCWarroom]

Nice report and fun to follow. Thank you.

[Holy Hand Grenade]

Apologize to all.....forgot the Demi Stomp in the Halb fight.

It changed everything....as you will see.  I updated both threads.

Regardless, excellent fight.  I was honored to put it on.  The key takeway:  this battle was close and could have been won by either side in Turn 6.

Zif informed me that the Archer wasn't in combat before the turn so all that damage wouldn't happen.  I have to run off to work and will update it when I come home.

Long story short-  the game is a draw.

[zifnab0]

Why I lost: Dice rolls.  Every flippin' time.

His halberds charged and lost combat, weren't stubborn, and had to test on Ld. 5.  Even with a reroll, the odds were stacked against him.

Magic dice consistently went against me as well.

Although, as you'll see in the other thread, my wizard and archer bunker should have survived.