Topic: Tactics for Round 7

[rha celt]

Well someone had to start this thread. This round we have no help in the form of modifiers. Talabeclands only effect is their skirmish and small battles do not add to the riot numbers. Stirland gets bonuses for defending their last bastion.  I say we again try to put all of our draws and minor wins at the watchman in case stirland trys to break through there.  I think because of their feeling about the talas they will go for Udos falls. I still think all of our big wins need to go to Bechafen. Lets hope that  the talas do not just dump on Bechafen with every thing they can muster.

[Midaski]

Well we had a very good round 6.

Rorrak's figures about the number of members we have proved quite interesting.
We seem to have a healthy team that all try to contribute something.  

If I understand the results correctly Stirland are back holed up at Hohleburg, and can only attack Udo's where they are 15000 behind, and it will take them 2 rounds to get it back, ......
..or the Watchman where we have about 5000 pts advantage, and it is only contested so they can regain control this round.

So no prizes for guessing where they will attack.  

The plus point is that their modifier this round is ONLY for Hohleburg, and we cannot attack it and Talabecland will not need to.

The annoying thing now is that we do not know what the objective is.
We can only guess that Bechafen has something to do with it, but maybe control of locations adds a bonus.
It is probably about time the campaign team explained their ideas for the endgame.

We should have about 10-11 days left - that will mean the 6 weeks are up - so this round and one more?
2 more would either mean very short rounds or take us into a fresh week and logic would dictate a weekend finish to the campaign.  

Now is the time to be making the decisions about final targets - if we knew the value of Bechafen as opposed to say holding the Watchman and Brustenbruck we could plan.
If Bechafen remains contested right to the end, and it will be very difficult for any single faction to get overall control - then control of most locations should be the next most vital factor.

Is now the time to hammer every post at Bechafen? I suspect that is where Talabecland will be going.

Or do we try to defend the Watchman?
If we held it they could not get to Bechafen for at least another 2 rounds.
This round could see Stirland totally out of the running.

If we ignore the Watchman and let them take it back, they will probably only have one round to do anything.

Should we attempt to take Brustenbruck? I doubt we could save the Watchman AND take Brustenbruck.

Can we expect an attack from Talabecland - well it is a possibility, but they again have a modifier bonus for Bechafen, to keep the riots down.

That is interesting - the riots will not go up for Talabecland skirmishes, if we only post battles that will not affect the riots either.
I assume Stirland can still post skirmishes there - if I was in their camp I would be encouraging them to post as many skirmishes as possible.  

Anyway these are the ramblings of an old man - any comments?

NB. I had another thought  - maybe we should have a "Round 7 Actions" thread which is kept 'short' and just with the latest plans. The round 6 tactics thread got a bit long, and went over to new pages 'losing' the current battle plans.
That way we can use this thread to discuss - agree our actions - and then post the up to date orders in a short thread - so our less frequent visiting generals can look at a one-page thread for the latest position
 

[Nightshadow]

NB. I had another thought  - maybe we should have a "Round 7 Actions" thread which is kept 'short' and just with the latest plans. The round 6 tactics thread got a bit long, and went over to new pages 'losing' the current battle plans.
That way we can use this thread to discuss - agree our actions - and then post the up to date orders in a short thread - so our less frequent visiting generals can look at a one-page thread for the latest position
 

Good idea!

I think we should throw much at Bechafen, because we are nearing the end of the campaign, and it should pay off. Let the Stirlanders take TUW back, it'll keep them busy another turn.

[Rorrak]

Midaski's point about the objectives is a very valid one.

Scenario 1
------------
If we let Stirland take back TUW then T-Land will have a 1 Territory advantage. If we only contest Bechafen then they win courtesy of having 4 Territories.

Scenario 2
-------------
Bechafen is worth 2, maybe 3 territories. If we control it and let Stirland have TUW back then even if its only worth 2 we win with 5.


Skirmishes at Bechafen do still help us.  If we post 400 points there the Riots get 200. It takes 300 points to cancel the effects of needing to have 50% more CR so we make 100 profit and we negate 300 opposing score.

Playing skirmishes instead of games doesnt make sense, but if you can only manage skirmishes then it is a way to help.

I've gotten my family fairly excited about mordheim again so I can probably produce 2-3 results this week. (Got one already).
I've only got 1 full game to play in this round realisticly.

[Rorrak]

Is Bechafen even possible ?

Lets look at some maths. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Taking a look at the bigger picture. The total CR at Bechafen is 92,625 this puts each faction behind the total of the others by 70,000 ish. But wait there is more. You need 50% more so you need 105,000 CR.

I believe the best total CR was posted by T-Land last round at around 36,000 so assuming no posts by opposition T-Land need 4 more rounds to achieve this lofty goal or a massive modifier.

Obviously there will have to be some story that allows the rapid catch up but how does that influence our current thinking ?

[Vann Harl]

I would Love to hit Hohlburg but that is unrealistic and not necessary.
Do you think we could lead the Stirs into believing we will attack there again? we feinted an attack last time and they bought it - just look at their control rate of 19000

I would like to lend my support to retaining the Uneasy again and keeping the riot points ticking over at Bechafen. And I f we retain it do It by a BIG margin.

I also might only be able to report 1 game this round and a couple skirmish games

[Midaski]

I've just read Rorrak's post above about Bechafen, just after posting a comment in the Campaign forum "When will it end" thread about the impossibility of taking Bechafen.

Great minds think alike

@Vann Harl - we cannot attack Hohleburg this round - we cannot attack through a 'contested' site.

I have pushed the 'scoring' system questions in the Campaign Forum thread above, precisely because of the scenarios Rorrak laid out above.

If we lose the Watchman then we will only have 3 locations - Talabecland have 4.

The one piece of real news is General H has said 3 MORE ROUNDS.
I assume he means including this one [7].

That allows us a bit of planning.
Do we fight like hell to win the Watchman outright?
That would effectively put Stirland out of the game - as they would then need both Rounds 8 AND 9 to get access to Bechafen back.

Do we sacrifice the Watchman and attack elsewhere -
- Bechafen? we could aim to have the biggest points total there, even if we know it cannot be won outright......
- or
- Brustenbruck? This would cut Talabecland's number of locations, and put ours up. However it would take 2 rounds to win it, and on the second of those rounds Stirland would be back in control of the Watchman and able to attack us, at Fort Grigory, or post to Bechafen?

 

[Rorrak]

Three more rounds.

Assuming that Bechafen is not attainable.


The relevant facts.

T-Land Posted 31,000
Middenland Posted 29,000
Stirland Posted 22,000 (Expect it to climb to 30,000)

We are ahead 9850 points at Kaltenbach.
We are behind 8450 points at Brustenbach.
We are ahead 6000 points at TUW. (but its only contested)
We are ahead 3000 points at Fort Grigory.

T-Land have a hefty 15,000 point lead at Udo's.

T-Land will win the campaign with the current status quo. They have 4 territories.


Scenario 1.
-------------
All out attack at TUW. This should take us to controled but will take us to 4 Territories also.
Our assault at TUW makes Udo's safe for T-Land.

Round 8. Even if T-Land didnt go for Kaltenbach in Round 7 they will now. For us to hold TUW we will need to focus everything there and we cant hold both fronts.
We lose the campaign.


Scenario 2.
--------------
All out Attack at Brustenbach, wich may be met by a counter attack at Kaltenbach or a defense of Brustenbach.

Round 8. Stirland recovers TUW and has a easy shot at Fort Grigory forcing us to split our reports and end up with 3 territories while T-Land has 4.
We lose the campaign.


Scenario 3.
-----------
Split reports between Fort G and Kaltenbach getting a lead of at least 18,000 at Fort G making Udo's look easier to Stirland.
We cant afford to let Kaltenbach go contested this round either.
Round 8 we can drive hard at Bustenbruck giving Stirland a way to get Udo's back, we should be able to get it contested because T-Land will need to fortify Udos if they want to keep their 4 Territory lead.
Round 9 we press with all we have at Bustenbruck. If we control it we have 4 territories and win, if not the campaign is a draw.
We have a shot at the campaign.

We pummel at Bechafen with skirmishes that completely disrupt other factions chances there.

Psychology.

If we do an even split and T-Land focus at Kaltenbach they will end up contesting it so if we can disuade them by posting as early as possible there then doing our later reports at Fort G we should be poised for a shot at the campaign.







So far still only expecting 1 game to play for me I really wonder if I cant make that 2 somehow.

[Calvin]

Could you could play two 1000 pointers instead of one full sized battle?

[Brunger]

I am thinking almost in line with Rorrak's scenario 3... but I would rather keep posting battles to TUW and still pump up Kaltenbach (maybe to a difference of 15-20000?) rather than pumping up Fort Grigory and Kaltenbach.  Round 8 we push hard at Brustenbruck.  That way we have a large defence to fall back on if the talabeclanders try and retaliate by attacking Kaltenbach and we have a bit of a hold left on TUW to deal with the Stirlanders...

Or maybe even solidify our hold on TUW, while spending two rounds fortifying Kaltenbach as a side project. Then round 9 charge Brustenbruck with pretty much everything we have.

No matter what happens in the next few rounds, I have a very strong feeling that holding on to TUW will determine if we will do well or not in this campaign.  So I say at least try  to work holding on to TUW into our tactics.

[Rorrak]

Other than Vann Harl and the very Helpfull folks at the Store the club hasnt really been flexable in campaign games.

Folks pitch up with a 2000pt list and thats what they want to play.
Were hard to convince to use the scenariors etc.

Not to worry both Vann Harl are really enjoying the campaign despite the small hurdles.

I've not given up on a 2nd game yet and 2 x 1000 pointers may well be the solution

[rha celt]

I will follow your lead, but I to feel everything this turn needs to go to the watchman. I have played at least thirty games for this campaign and have only one massacre. I have several other wins but most of my opponents are about the same level of player as myself. I think this campaign is giving me a complex. I want more massacres.  Sorry for the digression. I know that we can not outright win bechanfen but I think we still have to keep the numbers competitive there. If  we forget that Bechafen is the most important area on the map we could lose this campaign.

[Rorrak]

@Rha Celt

I believe most of us pick games that will be fun for both players and as a result massacres are few and far between. I dont think any of us have posted more than two have we ?

Its also only a tiny handfull in the other factions that just get massacres every game

[Rorrak]

What ever our plan is we need to be planing for a win in 3 turns.

Unless something dramatic happens in terms of modifiers the winner will be the one with 4 Territories. Well thats my thinking anyway.

So lets try to figure out the what ifs.

To win at TUW we have to focus all of our points there.  Thats the only way to ensure it because you can bet your bottem dollar Stirland will go after it with every thing they have.  So we have nothing to put at Kaltenbach. Going half backed at TUW means we will lose it and expose the tiny lead we have at  Fort - G.

In this scenario we know what we are doing, we know what Stirland are doing, but what will T-Land do ?

1). Bolstering Udo's
2). Attacking Bechafen.
3). Attacking Kaltenbach.

Ok now the consequences of each.

1). Udo's fall is just about impossible to lose for T-Land. They can come after us with everything they have. We cant defend if we want to keep TUW because Stirland will still be fighting there.

2).  Perhaps a Tie breaker if we do keep TUW and thus 4 territories. We will still need to spend the next two turns holding TUW while T-Land have free will.

3). Well we cant defend unless we accept the loss of TUW so it goes to contested, or we split our points and keep Kaltenbach but TUW goes back to Stirland. Fort Grigory has almost no points lead and is now vuneralble to a focused stirland attack.

[Rorrak]

3). Attacking Kaltenbach.

Well I guess its door number 3.

Hellblaster posted his perfect 5 Massacres, 4 of them at Kaltenbach.

[Middenland_is_Okay]

Yes, but he won't do that again this campaign, like three of those were from last week. He(and I) have a lot of school, so no need to worry about him playing that many games any more.

[Midaski]

and why only 4 and not the 5?

It may be a bluff - why is cisse posting to Bechafen?

I still think we have 2 choices
- defend TUW with everything, and hope Stirlands numbers have dwindled a bit - tho they will have Massacre Man back this weekend.

or attack Brustenbruck and defend Kaltenbach a bit.

 

[jmanwarhammer]

Let me know what the plan is. I just got another Massacre today with a 25% modifier for using the Middenland list.

[Rorrak]

I got two games played but TK really turned the fear on and despite a very good start things went really bad for empire

I played second game and got a draw only.  We dont have consensus as to where to attack yet ,

[Rorrak]

We are behind at Kaltenburg now.

We still hold onto the Watchman, it may be that Stirland players have lost enthusiasim.

I will hold onto my game for now but its minimal points being only a 300 pointer.

[rha celt]

I have two solids and a massacre using the middenland list and scenarios. I played seven games yesterday and that was the best I was able to do. These will be the only games I can add this round. So where to post and when to post are up to you.

[Midaski]

Ok - it now seems it wasn't a bluff from Helblaster...and they seem to be going for Kaltenbach quite heavily.

We need to retrieve our lead there - they probably do not have too much left to post.

Stirland has hardly posted anything which is worrying - it will come at the Watchman.

Let's post a few up at Kaltenbach to get back in front, and then save a few for tomorrow's review.
I have one solid, and then I lost one yesterday, but hopefully will get 2 medium size games in this afternoon and evening. We've got 4 of us side by side on two 4 x 4 boards, at 1500pts.

I'll put the solid up now at Kaltenbach.
 

[Midaski]

Right well I've just read the thread in the Campaign forum and I'm feeling pretty annoyed and fed up, so I'm deleting my battle report, and going off to play my games, and I might well get my DoW out instead of my Kis/Mid list.

I'm tempted to say that's it and campaign over as far as I am concerned.

[Rorrak]

The oddest thing in this world is how few negative people there are, and oddly how much effect they have on others around them.

Don't let it get to you. Play your games today, have fun and blow off some steam, play DoW if it makes you happier but dont let one person's negative comments get to you.

Much earlier in the campaign he "was sick to death" of what was actually tongue in cheek banter. Look at his post. He calls us children, chastizes us then goes on to dabble in the same crimes he accuses us of, then finally throws his little tantrum by "quitting". Its fine to to leave something you dont think is fun, publicly declaring you are quiting to try get some response from others is just as childish as the reason he is claiming he is not happy.

[jmanwarhammer]

...Wow. Thats pretty deep. Knew I should have taken Psych. 1 as my elective.