These are the probabilities with and without an engineer with the HBVG:
Without an engineer, these are the odds:
One misfire: shots on remaining two rolls cut in half 34.65%
Two misfires; roll on the black powder misfire table 6.98%
Three misfires: 30 shots then blows up 0.47%
(one might think that the odds a a misfire are 50% with three art dice but the combinations of double and triple misfires result in only a 42.2% probability of one or more misfires each turn)
Shots:
Average 12.65; Median 12.00
Minimum 0.000000 Maximum 30.000000
01-%ile 0.000000 99-%ile 28.000000
05-%ile 0.000000 95-%ile 26.000000
10-%ile 3.000000 90-%ile 22.000000
25-%ile 6.000000 75-%ile 20.000000
Median 12.000000
Long Range Hits: Avg. 4.21; Median 4.0
Minimum 0.000000 Maximum 21.000000
01-%ile 0.000000 99-%ile 12.000000
05-%ile 0.000000 95-%ile 10.000000
10-%ile 0.000000 90-%ile 8.000000
25-%ile 2.000000 75-%ile 6.000000
Median 4.000000
Short Range Hits: Avg. 6.32 Median 6.0
Minimum 0.000000 Maximum 24.000000
01-%ile 0.000000 99-%ile 16.000000
05-%ile 0.000000 95-%ile 14.000000
10-%ile 1.000000 90-%ile 12.000000
25-%ile 3.000000 75-%ile 9.000000
Median 6.000000
By dedicating an engineer to the HBVG, one significantly changes the odds:
One misfire: shots on remaining two rolls cut in half 11.60%
Two misfires; roll on the black powder misfire table 1.55%
Three misfires: 30 shots then blows up 0.07%
Shots:
Average 16.33; Median 16.0
Minimum 0.000000 Maximum 30.000000
01-%ile 0.000000 99-%ile 28.000000
05-%ile 5.000000 95-%ile 26.000000
10-%ile 7.000000 90-%ile 24.000000
25-%ile 12.000000 75-%ile 20.000000
Median 16.000000
Long Range Hits: Avg. 8.17; Median 8.0
Minimum 0.000000 Maximum 24.000000
01-%ile 0.000000 99-%ile 17.000000
05-%ile 2.000000 95-%ile 14.000000
10-%ile 3.000000 90-%ile 13.000000
25-%ile 6.000000 75-%ile 11.000000
Median 8.000000
Short Range Hits: Avg. 10.88 Median 11.0
Minimum 0.000000 Maximum 27.000000
01-%ile 0.000000 99-%ile 21.000000
05-%ile 3.000000 95-%ile 18.000000
10-%ile 4.000000 90-%ile 17.000000
25-%ile 8.000000 75-%ile 14.000000
Median 11.000000
The optimal targets are elite units, chariots and monsters even with high armour saves. Absent a ward save, you can kill 2 to 3 chaos knights per turn at long range and 3 to 4 at short range. Against heavy infantry armies with elite units having T4, this fire can be devastating. You should kill about 5 wounds on average at long range and 7 wounds at short range with an engineer. That is 1 and 2/3's ironguts/ogres/maneaters long range and 2 and 1/3 ironguts/ogres/maneaters short range. In the first round you may end up more than 24 inches from a target or shooting at scouts or vanguard units, so it may make sense to have the engineer devoted to a great cannon in that instance.