Here are cuts & pastes from Pick up the spell you want.1. Why do I wish to select specific spells?
In the present edition, all Lores have been improved.
Nowadays, there is hardly any spell which is scrap.
As a result, you can safely assume that whichever spell you pick is going to be useful, and adjust your strategy on the battlefield according to the spells you’ve got.
But I want more predictability.
If I could select one or two specific spells, and be highly confident that I will get them, then I could build up my army taking that specific spell into account.
Example: I may wish that my Level 4 get specifically spell #5. Is this possible?
Or could I be certain to get both #5 and # 6, and plan on that? Or at least one of these two spells?
Finally, I could select a specific Lore because spell #1 and #2 are excellent against Stunties while spell #3 and #4 are outstanding against Lizzies; when I face my opponent, am I going to get the spells appropriate to my opponent? 2. Spell selection.
P. 490. Your spellcasters have selected their Lores beforehand, at the same time as you create your army. Lores may no more be adapted to the opponent you happen to meet.
If you have several mages, you select who gets his spells first.
Roll 1D6 per sorceress’ level. It indicates which spell the mage gets.
If you roll a spell twice, whether for the same mage or because another mage already has that spell, then you replace the duplicate spell with another spell of your choice in the same Lore, which is not taken yet.
After choosing replacements for duplicates, you can substitute one of the spell you rolled with the signature spell (for BRB Lores – I call this spell Spell #0), these spells being allowed to be taken several times.
As a consequence:
- Signature spell can be granted.
- The higher the level, the more likely you get duplicates, therefore the more likely you can select the very one spell you dream of. Or possibly the two spells you really wished you had.
- If your two mages take the same Lore, then the second one will have many more opportunities to roll duplicates, therefore your chances to get the specific spell you wish increase.
I will now examine what are the odds of getting a specific spell, according to the level of the mage.
If the odds are close to 100%, then it is reasonable to build up your army “knowing” that you’ll get this or that specific spell available.
Next, I’ll consider that two mages take the same Lore, in order to increase the odds that the highest level gets the one or two spell you want.
I’ll examine if it is reasonable for competitive friendly games, where you accept a moderate risk of failure, and for tournaments, where you’re supposed to play several games with the same list and you want to get the highest certainties you can get. In order to fix ideas, I’ll always consider that you really want spell #6, and if you want two spells, they will be #6 and #5. Of course, the same result would be true for any other given spell selection.
Be aware that I am not a statistician, so the odds may be mistaken sometimes, especially the odds to get spell #5 and #6, which are very tricky. 3. Getting specific spells with one mage.
With a single mage using a Lore, chances to get Spell #6 are:
72,2%with a Level 3.
90,7%with a Level 4
98,5%with a Level 4 and her Tome of Furion.
I consider that a Level 4 is enough for a competitive friendly game, that is 1/11 games against your strategy.
For a competition, it is not enough and the ToF is mandatory. Too bad, this precludes the use of any other Arcane item. This is why a second mage is to be considered, using the same Lore.
If either one of Spell #5 or #6 was acceptable, the odds become:
88,9% with a Level 3 (or Level 2+ToF), enough for a competitive friendly game
98,1% with a Level 4, fine for a tournament.
If I want to base my strategy on getting simultaneously #5 and #6, then the odds are:
83,3% with a Level 4, barely acceptable for a competitive friendly game
96,9% with a Level 4+ToF, fine for a tournament. 4. Two mages, two Lores.
In tournament level games, only two Level 4 can grant you the availability of spell #6 or #5 in Lore X and the availability of spell # 4 or #3 in Lore Y, with a likelihood of 96.3%.
In competitive games, you could hope for getting spell # 6 and #5 in Lore X and spell #4 and #3 in Lore Y with your two Level 4, you’ll be on spot for 7 games out of 10!
(Note: no § 5 & 6 for Empire, sorry)7. Getting specific spells with a high level mage and his Level 1 assistant.
If the Level 1 rolls any spell but #6, the better. The trouble is that if he rolls #6 that you wish the higher mage had, then he has to take the signature spell instead and his role is wasted.
The odds to get spell #6 for the higher level mage are:
86,1% with a Level 3, still OK for a competitive friendly game
96,9% with a Level 4, fine for a tournament
99,7% with a Level 4+ToF, probably overkill.
If you’re happy with either #5 and #6, then the Level 3 is probably enough with 95,8% chances.
The odds that the high level mage get #5 and #6 are:
84,5% with a Level 4, just good for a competitive friendly game.
99,5% with a Level 4+ToF, required for a tournament. 8. Getting specific spells with a high level mage and his Level 2 assistant.
Let’s increase the level of the assistant to Level 2. Here, he can still guarantee that he will not unduly get #6 which is reserved for the main mage. Even if he rolls twice 6, he will be able to replace the duplicate spell with another spell of your choice, then switch the remaining #6 for #0. In case he rolls any 6, then his role becomes like a Level 1. The stats below combine all together (i.e. if he gets any 6 or not). Overall, as there is no risk to block spell #6, the stats are good.
The odds to get spell #6 for the main mage are:
94,7% with a Level 3, excellent for a competitive friendly game.
99,4% with a Level 4, perfect for a tournament.
If you’re happy with either #5 and #6, then the Level 3 is enough with 99,2 % chances.
The odds that the main mage get #5 and #6 are:
84,5% with a Level 4, just good for a competitive friendly game.
99,5% with a Level 4+ToF, required for a tournament.9. Getting specific spells with two Level 3.
There is one more possibility to get with certainty all 6 spells in a Lore: take two Level 3! The advantage is that whoever gets the wanted spell will cast it at the same Level.
A variant to consider seriously is to take a Level 3 and a Level 2 with ToF. Casting will just be slightly more difficult.
The Level 3 will have 88,8% chances to get #6, and even if he doesn’t, then the Level 2 has the certainty to get it, or a quasi certainty without ToF (98.5%), with just 1 less to cast.
If you want both #5 and #6, then select the spells first with Level 2 + ToF, then Level 3 will have the certainty to get the missing ones (or 96,9% if there was no ToF). 10. Summary for competitive friendly games.
If you want either spell #5 or #6, then take a Level 3 (88,9%).
If you desperately need spell #6 on your main mage, take a Level 4 (90,7%), or a Level 3 assisted by a Level 1 or 2 (86,1% to 94,7%)
If you need simultaneously spells #5 and #6 on your main mage, take a Level 4 (83,3%), knowing that an assistant Level 1 brings not much more certainty. 11. Summary for tournaments.
If you want either spell #5 or #6, then take a Level 4 (98,1%).
If you desperately need spell #6 on your main mage, take a Level 4 assisted with a Level 2 (99,4%).
If you need simultaneously spells #5 and #6 on your main mage, only a Level 4 + ToF grants a high enough likelihood (96,9%). 12. Conclusion.
It is now feasible to plan to get a specific spell (even two specific spells) when you create your army.
Let’s take advantage of this!
In addition, most players will consider that if you can afford a Level 3, it doesn't make much sense not to increase to Level 4, getting much more bang for your buck.
Hope it helps.