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Offline Midaski

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« on: August 15, 2005, 08:18:39 PM »
Round 3 is over and processed and the battle reports are on hold awaiting a journal from the campaign team.

We have a chance to assess our position, and have a think about tactics for the next round.

We seem to have held on to the Uneasy Watchman, and hold a lead there of 7950 points.

It will be interesting to see what tactics the others now employ.

Stirland have lost access to Bechafen as Udo's Fall is contested.

They only have 3 places they can post battles - Hohleburg which they have a massive points score on already, the Watchman, and the contested Udo's.

Stirland will need to regain access to Bechafen - I assume they can still play skirmishes there, but that ups the riot factor as well.


Udo's Fall is the best opportunity as they can win back control in Round 4, whereas to get back the Watchman they will need to get it to contested status at the end of round 4 and then it would be the end of round 5 before they could reclaim it.
If I was in the Stirland camp I would be making Udo's Fall a must control situation, and must hold thereafter, so they should attack there very seriously.
However I suspect we will see some attacks at the Watchman.

The Talabeclanders are a harder faction to plan for.
They have fortified Brustenbruck to 9450 points, as we did a bit with Kaltenbach to 7000.

They will probably show some interest in Bechafen, now Stirland cannot post battles there, it is open to a takeover bid.

They also must decide how much they wish to keep control of Udo's Fall.
If they do the latter, that would push Stirland back to only Hohleburg.

I am not sure that the Campaign Team would fancy that happening, so I would expect some helpful modifiers all round for Stirland.

Annoying really as they have posted just over a 100 Battle Reports - have 'Massacre Man' in their ranks, and still cannot run successful tactics.

Talabecland have the lowest number of signed up members and still outposted us by about 10.
Approximately 75 for them, and 65 for us - and we have the most members signed up.
Our active members do not seem to be the ones with time and opportunity to play loads of games - in fact less than half the people signed up have actually contributed a report.

So what are our choices?

Do we attack Brustenbruck, or bolster Kaltenbach.
It has been the 'quiet' front and the suspicious attempt to start it up, involving 'Champion of Ulric', was squashed.

Do we make a play for Bechafen.

Do we make sure we hold on to the Watchman? If we knew how many rounds were left, that would help. Having control means that it will take Stirland 2 rounds to be able to use it as a through route.
So if we knew that round 6 would be the last, then we could fight to hang on to it in Round 4, and then forget about it for the last 2 rounds as it would be useless to Stirland [would they realise that I wonder?]

Even if we let it go now, it would give us 2 free rounds to progress elsewhere.

Anyway those are my thoughts - let's hear from the rest of you.
 :wink:


Edit later:  How can we get more of our signed up members involved?
Some probably signed up a while back and may not realise it's started?

Any ideas.
 :?:
Quote from: Gneisenau
Quote
Metal to Finecast - It is mostly a swap of medium. 

You mean they will be using Ouija boards instead of Tarot cards for their business plans from now on?

Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2005, 08:37:32 PM »
Midaski wrote:

Quote
have 'Massacre Man' in their ranks


 :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Good stuff.

(Pulls himself together)

Ok seriously, if we have so many inactive members would it really be wise to hit the hyper-active Tabeclanders? Would we just be kicking a hive of bees?

If indeed Stirland want Udo's falls the Tab's will be occupied and should be safe, but if Stirland take a bite at us again then maybe the Tab's will see us as a nice target on a second front.

It seems to me that once again discretion is the better part of valour and we should wait to see what the other factions do.


 :?:  :?: BUT
We did this last round too, and what happens if all the factions adopt this policy and just do sneak attacks at the last minute, we'll have a right mess on our hands then...

Whatever comes, I'm sure we'll see it through with the same strategic thinking we have shown to date :)

Frederick

Offline Nightshadow

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2005, 08:48:44 PM »
I think that, whatever we do, we'll have to keep a couple of battles that are worth many points back until right before the tally date. That way we can counter last minute sneak attacks, and if there are none, we can make a sneak attack ourselves.
Graf Wilhelm Anderssen, Leading the Marburg Company (Stirland), joining Helstrom's 4th.
Awarded with the Nemesis Rune, Von Klaust's Laurels of Acclamation and the Scroll of Ludendorf.
NC: 5/2/1

Offline Rorrak

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2005, 09:21:15 PM »
We have a staunch lead at TUW. However I'm betting that some strong modifiers will be given to Stirland and closing that gap may be easier.

Assuming the modifiers for Udu's fall and TUW are equal it would be logical to  try regain Udu's fall to regain access to Bechafen.

What is the ultimate goal ? Bechafen if I remember correctly.

Stirland can't even compete there this turn, if they go for TUW then its two turns before they can compete there providing we can't just keep it contested.

It may pay to make TUW unsurmountable. That will force their hand at UDO's fall. If we go this way then we need to post a couple of battles ASAP this round to state our intention, saying "Look we plan to keep it, Udo's fall is easier"

If they commit to TUW and fail then it will be really hard for them to recover.

Only two factions can post at Bechafen this round, if we both just post skirmishes the riot rate will go up too fast. We will need some full battles there, but we don't want to draw attention.  However we need to stay in contention else if Stirland do get access back to Bechafen their may be able to hold on to the lead long enough to win the campaign.

I suspect something interesting from the campaign team here but I don't want to say what in case they havent thought of it and I give them the idea.

Offline Midaski

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2005, 09:25:14 PM »
I think there might be a recount at the Watchman?

But I like the idea of posting there early.
Quote from: Gneisenau
Quote
Metal to Finecast - It is mostly a swap of medium. 

You mean they will be using Ouija boards instead of Tarot cards for their business plans from now on?

Offline jmanwarhammer

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2005, 12:17:37 AM »
The way I figure is that we should post a couple battle reports at the Uneasy to make it clear that Stirland has no hope of recapturing it soon. This will leave them with Udo's Fall, as they are only a mere 5000 points away they will likely concentrate their efforts there. With Demonslayer (Do we really have to call him Massacre Man? I'm sure his head is already nice and swelled from the MVP thread) posting all his Massacres there and the rest of the Stirland lot pitching in, Talabecland will probably give their attention soley to Udo's; it's rather hard to hold on to a location with Demonslayer/Stirland determined to take it. This will leave us with a clear path to Bechafen so that we may try to even out the odds there.

Now with that plan there are two problems, both of which are unlikely. Firstly if Stirland decides they'd rather have the Watchmen and secondly if Talabecland folds early on at Udo's. For these two odd events we should hold a few Massacres with full modifiers in reserve until we either need them, or if every thing goes according to plan we use them to further tighten our grip on Bechafen.

As a final note, it might be wise to wait and see what modifiers are granted to Stirland and that the above is what I think we should do, because we no longer have Stirland raising the antty.

P.S. Bechafen could be substituted with another location possibly even the last controlled Stirland location if we feel like being devious  :twisted: .
Larry: WOW! Three sixes in a row!
[Elsewhere]
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Offline rha celt

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my suggestions
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2005, 12:39:21 AM »
I think any draws and minor victories should be posted to the watchman just to show some activity and to let everyone know we want to keep it. All major victories and massacres should be saved and used the last day of this section to do the most damage in the smallest amount of time, or to prevent the fall of Bechafen. I do think if we could save even 10-15 major battles to post until the last day it could really change the outcome.
When in doubt attack, hey sometimes it works

Offline LizardKing

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2005, 12:41:54 AM »
I have a solid, a massacre and a draw with full mods from today..damn those lizards! well, just let me know where to post. Your collective wishes are my command.

-Pete
-kill 'em all, let ULRIC sort 'em out

Offline Vann Harl

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2005, 06:17:35 AM »
I agree on bolstering the Uneasy, We sat back last round, lets see what the campaign staff do, then I say we look for the most favourable plan of action to force either sides hand. Lets leave them with no choice but to counter our moves, rather then a last minute scramble to post reports in defense of their attacks.

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Offline Midaski

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2005, 08:06:04 AM »
Several good points lads.

We probably need to check the scores at each location as well.

There may yet be a recount at the Watchman, as the General thinks he might have added things up wrongly - we are still in front, but nowhere near as far.

Hohleburg has a very high score - over 20,000 points and is probably not worth any effort. It might be worth looking at next round if Talabecland hold on to Udo's Fall - leaving Stirland only with Hohleburg.

I was in the Chat room with the General last night, trying to see how many more rounds were likely?
We've had 3 in 14/15 days, so if the Campaign runs 4 weeks we can expect another 3; if the Campaign runs longer for 6 weeks, then probably about another 6.

The latter is more likely I suppose - so bearing in mind what I posted earlier about "taking 2 turns" on attacking a location, we should be thinking ahead, past rounds 4 & 5, as well.

The other point that has been made in the Campaign News forum is that the Campaign Team will give a date for the end of the round, BUT NOT a time.
I think round 3 finished early evening in the UK - maybe lunchtime in parts of the USA.
So we will have to watch any holding back of battle reports! I agree  though that having a few in reserve is always a good idea - but the opposition, certainly the Talabeclanders, also know that.

I think at the moment we should:

1.Bolster the Watchman's defenses - even if Stirland go for Udo's, the stronger we are at the Watchman, the better it is for the later rounds.

2. Bolster Kaltenbach's defenses. Talabecland have 9450 at Brustenbruck to our 7000 at Kaltenbach. That gives them an advantage if a war breaks out there. We need to build up to a 10,000 gap at Kaltenbach at least - the bigger the gap the harder it is and the less inclined they will be to attack us.

3. Keep posting odd battles to Bechafen - just to keep close to the action.
I am not quite sure of the 'terms' for control there.
I think you have to have more than 50% of the TOTAL points posted there.
So we need to have more points than the other 2 plus the riots put together.
That is going to be quite tough to achieve - and needs to be planned for.

With possibly 3-6 more rounds, we want to ensure we are in front at the RIGHT time - at the END.

My Conclusion:
Our strategies should be to strengthen our bases.

I am not sure that we need to expand our ambitions? We will spend a lot of effort and points trying to take new locations - Do we really need to?

Stirland and Talabecland have 'spent' loads of points fighting backwards and forwards over Rhya's Sisters and Udo's Falls - was it worth it?

The only attack it may be worth considering might be Brustenbruck - as it would give the same sort of 'buffer' that the Watchman has provided.

However we currently hold THREE Locations with access to Bechafen.

Looking ahead Access to Bechafen will be the Key

If we could manoeuvre it so that in Round 7 [if it goes to 9] -

- We still have the Watchman
- We maybe have BrustenBruck, and
- Rhya's and Udo's are going to be contested in Round 8 - then it's game over - the others have no access to Bechafen.

 :lol:
Quote from: Gneisenau
Quote
Metal to Finecast - It is mostly a swap of medium. 

You mean they will be using Ouija boards instead of Tarot cards for their business plans from now on?

Offline Rorrak

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2005, 11:34:13 AM »
Ok, I went and re-read the FAQ.

We don't know what will win the campaign yet.

The only hint is that it will be about territory control and that bechafen will be the main prize.

To me that probably suggests that each shield may have a certain value towards a total, and certainly it sounds like Bechafen will have the best modifier.

It might be that the capitols also have a bigger modifier also and that control of an enemys capitol may reduce the advantage they have for controlling Bechafen. We don't want the other factions hearing about this else they may be tempted to slowly build up some points at their capitols. So please, none of this in propegander ?

Offline General Helstrom

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2005, 07:03:06 PM »
IMPORTANT UPDATE!

Some foul goblin got his grubby hands on my numbers and messed them up! The Round 3 scores for Middenland and Stirland at The Uneasy Watchman have accidentally been swapped during the tally. Many thanks to the watchful Middenlanders who first got a clue that something was amiss. My sincere apologies for the mistake!


The Uneasy Watchman results should be:

Stirland gained 14,600 points
Middenland-Kislev gained 11,350 points

Round 3 Control Rates:
Stirland: 30,900
Middenland-Kislev: 32,350

The Uneasy Watchman remains CONTROLLED by THE MIDDENLAND-KISLEV ALLIANCE
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Offline Midaski

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2005, 07:49:38 PM »
So we're a mere 1450 points in front at the Watchman - maybe we should have kept quiet :wink:
Still at least we can keep the 'honesty' tag.


Just read the journal. :evil:  

It look like those bastards in Green and Yellow are getting a Steam Tank as their LATEST modifier - tho' how it's going to work I do not know.

and the campaign team are now trying to provoke the Talabecland Brustenbruck - Kaltenbach match up.

I am not sure if it actually changes anything - we were expecting both locations to be under pressure.
 :roll:
Quote from: Gneisenau
Quote
Metal to Finecast - It is mostly a swap of medium. 

You mean they will be using Ouija boards instead of Tarot cards for their business plans from now on?

Offline rufus sparkfire

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2005, 07:59:20 PM »
Quote from: Midaski

It look like those bastards in Green and Yellow are getting a Steam Tank as their LATEST modifier - tho' how it's going to work I do not know.


Gosh, really? maybe I'll bring one to the campaign day...

 :lol:
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If I wanted to.

Offline Nightshadow

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2005, 08:31:50 PM »
With confirmation that we are just hanging on to The Uneasy Watchman by the skin of our teeth, I think we'll have to post some battles that are worth many points at TUW as soon as the Battle Report Forum opens up again. And then hope that the Stirlanders will concentrate on Udo's Fall. (then the Talabeclanders will have to fight on two fronts if the Brustenbruck-Kaltenbach conflict breaks loose)

AND

Quote
RIOTS: 9,475
Stirland: 11,000
Talabecland: 4,350
Middenland/Kislev: 5,650

Special Control Condition: The RIOTS points represent the general unrest in Bechafen; a faction must beat the RIOTS control points just af it it were a rival faction.


If I understand this correctly, than Stirland will control Bechafen by next tally if the scores dont change, so I think our second objective is to make sure that they do not get control of Bechafen.
Graf Wilhelm Anderssen, Leading the Marburg Company (Stirland), joining Helstrom's 4th.
Awarded with the Nemesis Rune, Von Klaust's Laurels of Acclamation and the Scroll of Ludendorf.
NC: 5/2/1

Offline jmanwarhammer

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2005, 10:54:08 PM »
So the  modifiers go...
 Talabecland/Middenland get a 25% bonus at Kaltenbach
 Stirland gets a 25% bonus at the Uneasy and a Steam Tank for having  
 thier asses handed to them (maybe a bit strong  :wink: ).

(Just a bit of speculation) This means that we'll be takeing some heat on those fronts. With our minor lead at the Watchmen some big points should be posted there soon and some smaller battles should be posted at Kaltenbach as a buffer so that we may gauge the Talabeclanders. With the modifiers and all Stirland may forget to further fortify thier capitol, though this may be useless as they have a huge lead, and Udo's Fall.
Larry: WOW! Three sixes in a row!
[Elsewhere]
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Offline Nightshadow

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2005, 07:16:35 AM »
Quote from: Nightshadow
With confirmation that we are just hanging on to The Uneasy Watchman by the skin of our teeth, I think we'll have to post some battles that are worth many points at TUW as soon as the Battle Report Forum opens up again. And then hope that the Stirlanders will concentrate on Udo's Fall. (then the Talabeclanders will have to fight on two fronts if the Brustenbruck-Kaltenbach conflict breaks loose)

AND

Quote
RIOTS: 9,475
Stirland: 11,000
Talabecland: 4,350
Middenland/Kislev: 5,650

Special Control Condition: The RIOTS points represent the general unrest in Bechafen; a faction must beat the RIOTS control points just af it it were a rival faction.


If I understand this correctly, than Stirland will control Bechafen by next tally if the scores dont change, so I think our second objective is to make sure that they do not get control of Bechafen.


D*mn, disregard this post please, I wrote it when the modifiers were not yet known. I feel that the Campaign Team is throwing a bit too many modifiers at us, ah well, we should see it as a compliment that they still find us the most dangerous, altough we've posted the least battles.

I agree with Jmanwarhammer on tactics, first secure TUW with high scoring battles, and then reinforce Kaltenbach (remember there's an Ulrican mission there, so we can't let that heretic witch and her lapdog general take it!).
Graf Wilhelm Anderssen, Leading the Marburg Company (Stirland), joining Helstrom's 4th.
Awarded with the Nemesis Rune, Von Klaust's Laurels of Acclamation and the Scroll of Ludendorf.
NC: 5/2/1

Offline Rorrak

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2005, 08:28:23 AM »
I very much expected a modifier at Kaltenbach and Brustenbruck but didnt want to say so in case I influenced the mods. I was only half right

We have been forced into fighting on two fronts.

Our 7000pt buffer at Kaltenbach was reduced to an effective 5600 due to the 25% modifier.

Already Kaltenbach has seen some action eroding our tiny buffer away.

Stirland should also be fighting on two fronts. The best they can hope for is to contest TUW while they could get Udo's back under control this turn.

This should mean they will be splitting their reports also but with the 25% bonus at TUW even if they do split 50/50 they will contest it again because we have to split ours.

Can we afford to let Kaltenbach go contested in order to keep TUW ?
If we stay reasonably close then it should be easy enough to take back.

If we keep TUW while risking that do they just get bigger modifiers or is there a limit to the Mods Generosity ? If there is no limit then frankly there is no point.

If stirland focus hard at TUW and ignore UDO's they have no access to bechafen for two more turns. If they do focus that attention and fail is it campaign over for them because now its three more turns till they can compete at Bechafen.

Additionally if there is no attempt at UDO's fall then then T-Land may want to bolster it and thus not spend points our way.

For me the unknown modifiers for next round make it impossible to plan for this round. Will Stirland continue to get bigger and better modifiers or will the gods forsake them if they cant even win help.

What I would do is this.

Contest TUW heavily and try to stay within a recoverable range at Kaltenbach.

This is not what we should do, thats up to all of us. Thats just what I might do

Offline Vann Harl

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2005, 10:25:36 AM »
With the way that the Moderators are talking about modifiers for Kaltenbach I think that ensuring a Rock Solid Defence of that area might convince the Moderators to give us a decent bonus for protecting a "sacred site".
To me this makes sense, they are trying to instigate a fight between us and T-land, maybe they are testing to see how strong our "faith" is in defending a sacred site.

Too a faithful people no "hole in the ground Inn" can be worth protecting when we have a holy site in danger.

If we start building up our defences now at Kaltenbach we may dissuade T-land from attacking there. Lets post early to Kaltenbach.

T-land know that they have few battles to report as it is. Let us give them no choice of attacking us! just as Midaski and Rorrak have said

Their only choice then is to attack at Udo's this will hopefully draw some heat from us at the Uneasy.

I have an unmodified Massacre that I will post right away to Kaltenbach
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Offline Rorrak

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2005, 10:57:10 AM »
Massacre man strikes again.

Vann Harl may have a good point, if we quickly make Kaltenbach unsurmountable the presure from T-Land may be redirected back at fortifying UDOS.

Offline Midaski

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2005, 09:10:23 PM »
I wonder if Talabecland realise how important Udo's Fall is and how it will keep Stirland away from Bechafen?

I wonder if Stirland realise it will take them 2 turns to get to Bechafen via TUW?

I wonder if I should post up something subtle in the Campaign Forum?

I also think we need to email some of our non active members - this round would be a great time to have 5 or 6 new members with some 'recent' battle reports.
If you see 'supposed' members posting elsewhere in threads, add a line in your reply about them coming here and joining in.

@Nightshadow:
1. Stirland cannot post Battles to Bechafen at the moment - they have no access.
2. There seems to be an anomaly in 'taking' Bechafen.
Your quote was the original version, which suggests you have to beat the riots total,
BUT the General H. has posted elsewhere suggesting that a faction would have to outpoint the combined totals of the other 3 elements to take control?
Quote from: Gneisenau
Quote
Metal to Finecast - It is mostly a swap of medium. 

You mean they will be using Ouija boards instead of Tarot cards for their business plans from now on?

Offline jmanwarhammer

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2005, 09:21:00 PM »
Stirland is almost infallably going to strike at the Uneasy you fools! At Udo's they are down by about 5000, while at the Watchmen they are down a mere 500 with a modifier in thier favor (or worse according to Midaski- we could already be down 1600)! If this wern't bad enough we've also got Talabecland gaining on us at Kaltenbach, our buffer zone just took a near 4000 point hit in less than a day.

We fortify The Uneasy Watchmen and Kaltenbach and then we sit back and wait for the Campaign Team to play nice again  :x .

@Midaski
How will it take them 2 turns to get to Bechafen throughthe Uneasy?
Larry: WOW! Three sixes in a row!
[Elsewhere]
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Offline Midaski

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2005, 09:26:19 PM »
I've added a post to Gen H's round 4 modifiers thread in the Campaign forum.
 :wink:

Let's see if that has any effect................

But in the meantime every thing we've got goes in defence I think, and I suspect the harder we make the Watchman, the more Stirland might be tempted to go for Udo's Fall.
It might be 5000 points Jman, but they can WIN it back totally in their control THIS round - whereas they might 'contest' the Watchman next round, and with no modifiers we could win it back.
Then they will be in deep crap - with only Hohleburg.
Quote from: Gneisenau
Quote
Metal to Finecast - It is mostly a swap of medium. 

You mean they will be using Ouija boards instead of Tarot cards for their business plans from now on?

Offline jmanwarhammer

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2005, 09:44:33 PM »
Dose a location have to be contested a whole round before it can be captured? Maybe I missed something but all you need to control a location is to have 50% of the total points and obviously the lead. So whats the deal :?:
Larry: WOW! Three sixes in a row!
[Elsewhere]
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Offline Midaski

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Round 4 - Defending against Biased Modifiers
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2005, 10:02:58 PM »
Quote from: jmanwarhammer
Dose a location have to be contested a whole round before it can be captured? Maybe I missed something but all you need to control a location is to have 50% of the total points and obviously the lead. So whats the deal :?:


If one side has control [like us at TUW] then if another side gets more points it is 'contested' for the next round.
At the end of that round the side witht he most points has control.

In effect you cannot snatch a location in just one round.
 :-D
Quote from: Gneisenau
Quote
Metal to Finecast - It is mostly a swap of medium. 

You mean they will be using Ouija boards instead of Tarot cards for their business plans from now on?